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But that natural disadvantage is exacerbated by the roster of seats that Democrats are trying to hold on this year’s Senate map.

— The reason is the map: Including the two independents who caucus with them, the Democrats are defending 26 of the 34 seats being contested this fall, which is the most lopsided Senate map any party has faced in a midterm since 1938.

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— We have two ratings changes this week, both upgrades for Democrats. Tina Smith (D-MN) moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic as she seeks election to the remainder of former Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) moves from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic. The Democrats need to defend all 26 of the 34 seats they currently hold, and then flip two of the eight Republican-held seats.